This week we’ve got discussions of the demand at Disney World, a few updates from other Disney resorts, and one thing we’re excited for at Disney World!
PREVIOUS UPDATE + WDW MASTERPOST
In case you’re behind (it’s easy to fall behind these days…even for us), our last update was on July 23. If you’re brand new and would just like a thorough look at the Disney World reopening, we have a Disney World Reopening Masterpost that covers the basics and links to our deeper content.
News From Outside Disney World
We’re starting with a few bits of non-Disney World before moving onto the bulk of the news from Disney World…
Oogie Boogie Bash (Disneyland Halloween Party) Cancelled
Disneyland Resort has cancelled the Oogie Boogie Bash, a halloween party that debuted at Disney California Adventure last year. We reviewed Oogie Boogie Bash last year.
California continues to grapple with rising case counts and shifting hotspots. While it might look like California is at or just past its expected peak, the situation in that state has been unpredictable, and I think reopening theme parks is probably less on their mind right now than it was the day after Disneyland first closed.
Ignite the Dream Returns to Shanghai
Shanghai Disneyland is now in the testing phase for the return of Ignite the Dream, the park’s nighttime show. This change comes as China as a whole is seeing fewer than 100 new daily cases, and with Shanghai—a city of over 24 million people—reporting only 7 deaths during the pandemic.
Shanghai Disneyland reopened on May 11, two months before the first Disney World parks reopening on July 11. I noted the above case counts because I don’t believe Disney World guests should expect the return of a nighttime show within two months, and probably not even this year.
Reopening Updates from Walt Disney World
Here’s the latest from the most magical place on Earth…
Walt Disney World Waits Remain Low
While many people on social media have taken note of higher weekend crowds at the Disney World parks, crowd levels overall remain quite low.
We have new wait time scorecards where we look back at the wait times for the last week. You can read the introductory post about the scorecards here, and here are the latest from each park:
Also, upon seeing people talking about busy Magic Kingdom was this weekend, I wrote a simple python program to “visit” the rides in random order, including “waiting” the amount of the posted wait time.
(More about this program coming soon. It’s in its infancy, so still has imperfections, like all rides being a 5-minute walk apart. But it can do most basic things like skip rides that are broken down and return to them later, and it includes a break for lunch.)
I ran tens of thousands of simulations based on Saturday and Sundays wait times. On Sunday, no simulations missed more than one ride, with Splash Mountain being the one usually missed because it was down much of the day.
Saturday was a little tougher. In 30,000 simulations, one simulation missed three or more rides, 49 missed two more more rides, and 481 missed one or more rides. That means if you arrived for the opening and randomly picked your ride order, there was a 1.6% chance you wouldn’t get on all the rides.
If you had the foresight to start your day with Seven Dwarfs Mine Train, only 49 of 30,000 simulated walks missed one ride (none missed more than that).
If these numbers seem surprising, just consider that waits over 30 minutes are rare at Magic Kingdom these days. With around 20 rides and ten hours, it’s no surprise you can easily fit all the rides into a single day.
So, crowds are so low that at the park with the most rides, you can still pick a random order and you’re nearly guaranteed to get on every ride.
Mask and Temperature Check Policies Updates
Disney World updated their mask policy to clarify that masks with vents are not allowed. The primary purpose of masks in the current situation is to mitigate the risk your own breathing poses to others. Vents defeat that purpose somewhat by allowing more of your breath out, hence the change.
Disney will also temperature check guests visiting table service restaurants at the resorts. Previously, temperature checks were used only at Disney Springs and when entering the parks.
The hotels generally don’t require temperature checks. This might seem counter-intuitive, but the purpose of leaning on online check-in is that you can go straight to your hotel room.
The hotels have open layouts, and funneling guests through a single entrance might be counterproductive. From what we’ve seen, social distancing is plenty easy, and of course the hotels have a mask requirement for public spaces.
Both of these changes are the sorts of things we’d expect Disney to correct as they learn what works and what doesn’t. The restaurant temperature checks makes particular sense, as Florida’s cases continue to rise, and the restaurants remain open to people who aren’t hotel guests (if they have reservations).
Masks are widely available for purchase at Disney World, and face mask vending machines have also started appearing at the parks.
Parks Pass Availability Update
As of July 30 2PM Central time, here’s an update on parks pass availability (parks pass is the reservation system that restricts access to the Disney World parks):
Theme Park Ticket Guests can book any park any day through September 2021
Resort Hotel Guests can book any park any day through September 2021, except Hollywood Studios on September 6
(Note the difference between these two groups would only apply to annual passholders booking resort hotels, as all other ticketed guests would fall under the Theme Park Ticket Guests category)
Passholders are:
Completely blocked out several dates through mid-August
Blocked out at Hollywood Studios through August 31
Blocked out at Hollywood Studios on weekends through October 3
Subject to mixed availability through August otherwise
The lack of blocked out dates for Theme Park Ticket Guests means the parks are not currently set to be at capacity anytime soon. Let’s talk about a related issue—hotel demand—before discussing demand more generally…
Select Disney World Hotel Reopenings Delayed
Disney has made the following changes to the Disney World hotel reopening schedule:
October 4 – Polynesian Village Resort (previously August 12)
November 1 — Art of Animation Resort (previously August 12)
TBD — Beach Club (previously August 24)
TBD — BoardWalk Inn (previously October 1)
This change isn’t shocking. We’ve seen the theme parks with crowds most often short of Disney’s low-capacity limits, so it’s unsurprising their hotel books are also below expectations. (You can read more about the reopening of Disney World’s hotels here.)
Probably the biggest loss here is Art of Animation, as guests hoping for family suites have no good option. The value suites are only found at Art of Animation and All-Star Music, so families hoping to use those will have to open for more expensive rooms at moderate or deluxe hotels, or make due with smaller rooms until November 1.
You could rationalize this as being about something other than demand, but any other explanation is a stretch. The best explanation is that Disney thought they’d be able to start filling more hotels sooner. Let’s talk about that.
How’s That Demand? (Lots of Opinion Follows)
(If you want to skip our ranting, you can scroll to the next section, which discusses some Disney World news not directly connected to the reopening.)
More pressing is that despite tourist demand falling short of Disney expectation, they’re continuing to give passholders only small bites at the apple. With annual pass refunds available in a tough economic moment, many loyal guests are going to lean toward getting some cash in their pockets rather than deal with the new park pass system.
Disney continues to release parks pass availability to passholders, but only in small amounts the quickly fill up. I suppose it’s good news for Disney that this space fills up so quickly, as it means there are still plenty of passholders who want to visit.
The flipside is that if the space is filling up quickly, it’s because there are plenty of passholders just sitting out there on their hands, rather than visiting the parks and spending money on merchandise and food. I’d say I’m surprised Disney hasn’t significantly adjusted the passholders rules yet (say, to 5 days bookings and more space at Hollywood Studios), but nothing much surprises me anymore.
Yes, I’m a passholder, but not a local. I’m honestly not bitter about the treatment of passholders, as some people (justifiably) are. My pass is mostly a business expense I won’t be using anytime soon. As a fan, though, I’m concerned about the business side of things.
Business shouldn’t come before safety, but we’ve crossed the Rubicon where Disney has set a capacity at which they believe they can safely operate. The over-restriction of passholders with crowds trending below those capacity limits sours relations with the best customers and costs merchandise / dining revenue.
For tourists, parks pass may be having a bit of a Galaxy’s Edge effect, where a lot of hype turned out to be unnecessary and drove away more guests than intended. When Galaxy’s Edge opened on both coasts, guests were so put off by warnings from Disney (and bloggers/media) of unimaginable crowds that the parks actually saw relatively mild attendance in the immediate term.
Along with the new mask and sanitation measures, parks pass is just another headache for many guests, one that at this point doesn’t seem incredibly necessary. There have been a few at-capacity days, but Disney probably could have managed those in a more traditional fashion (on New Year’s Eve, for example, they often have to stop selling same-day tickets).
Right now, they’re in a good position to guarantee entry to hotel guests. Allowing passholders to, you know, use their passes doesn’t seem like a shocking idea. If a passholder drives to Hollywood Studios to find it full, they’ll probably be able to drive over to Epcot. You could even have a feature in the app where parks are listed as “open,” “nearing capacity,” or “at capacity.”
The cynic in me would also point out that passholders have the option to buy single-day tickets, something Disney no doubt wants them to do ($$$). As a lawyer (not a consumer lawyer, though) it makes me…uneasy…to see Disney restrict passholder access and then turn around and tell them “but if you want to give us another $100…”
(Do you still believe I’m not bitter? I honestly don’t think I am, I just have trouble wrapping my head around what’s going on here.)
For all my concern, we still haven’t seen any changes to park hours, which (along with a temporary park closure) I’ve previously speculated could happen if times became tough enough.
In any case, Disney would have expected demand to increase over time, and the delaying of hotels reopening suggests that increase isn’t happening at the speed they anticipated. The next six months are going to be…interesting.
Not-So-Reopening Disney World News
This post is titled as being about the reopening of the parks, but we also often include news that’s more general. Here are some updates from Disney World that aren’t directly related to the reopening.
Tropical Storm Isais Heads Toward Florida
Tropical Storm Isais is heading for Florida. As of this update, it doesn’t look to be headed straight for central Florida, but the area is predicted to see some impact over the weekend.
When tropical storm / hurricane conditions become bad enough, Disney closes the parks. So far, they’ve given no indication of plans to do so. Last year, Hurricane Dorian forced the resort to close the parks early on one day.
PeopleMover “Temporarily Unavailable”
As noted by BlogMickey, PeopleMover is now noted as being “temporarily unavailable” on the Walt Disney World website.
Temporarily unavailable status is a worrisome thing, all things considered. You might recall Stitch’s Great Escape had “temporarily” closed status for years before being confirmed permanently closed last week.
The resort also isn’t in a position to invest heavily in repairing a ride like PeopleMover which, despite our love for it, is among the least popular in Magic Kingdom. That said, most recent reports on the ride suggest that repairs for the ride are planned, so we’re optimistic the ride will return.
Grand Floridian Walkway Almost Done?
We’re very excited about the walkway that will soon connect Grand Floridian to Magic Kingdom. We aren’t particular fans of Grand Floridian, but we are huge fans of walking and of Polynesian Village Resort, which happens to be connected to Grand Floridian by a walking path. We’re very excited to be able to walk between Magic Kingdom and Polynesian soon.
The path seems to be nearing completion. Grand Floridian is currently scheduled to reopen September 21, and it is being used by the NBA at the moment.
Once the path is completed, guests will be able to walk to Magic Kingdom from all three monorail resorts, however the paths will not form a loop, as no walkable pathway exists between Contemporary and Polynesian. While such a pathway would create a runner’s dream, it would serve little other purpose.