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For the most part, there is no "off-season" at Walt Disney World or Disneyland anymore. But finding the least popular dates is an important part at many stages of planning your Disney trip, from getting the cheapest flights to getting the most out of Fastpass+ to knowing which days to turn into resort days. This is where Disney crowd calendars come in.
In this post, we cover not only the basics of Disney crowd calendars (what they are and what the best ones are), but how to use them and, just as importantly, how not to use them. Read on to learn everything you need to know about Disney World crowd calendars and Disneyland crowd calendars.
What is a Crowd Calendar?
A crowd calendar is (as you might guess) is a calendar that attempts to predict daily crowd volume at a theme park. When we talk about Disney crowd calendars, we are talking about either Disneyland crowd calendars or Walt Disney World crowd calendars.
Disneyland crowd calendars can be broken into Disneyland and Disney's California Adventure, though few calendars do this. You don't hear so much about Disneyland crowd calendars because the location and climate of Disneyland, as well as its having only two parks, means both parks are pretty much always crowded.
For Disney World crowd calendars, there will almost always be four calendars grouped together: a Magic Kingdom crowd calendar, an Animal Kingdom crowd calendar, an Epcot crowd calendar, and a Hollywood Studios crowd calendar.
Are there any official Disney crowd calendars?
No! Disney itself does not publish crowd calendars. The best crowd calendars come from Disney experts who use a variety of methods to make their predictions. The best way to see when Disney thinks the crowds will be highest is to look at the rack rates for the rooms. Higher rates mean Disney expects more crowds.
What Are The Best Disneyland crowd Calendars?
As far as we know, no one has undertaken a comprehensive study comparing Disneyland crowd calendars, but some of our favorites and some popular ones can be found at:
What Are the Best Disney World Crowd Calendars?
Some of our favorites and some popular Disney World crowd calendars can be found at:
If you're looking for the best Walt Disney World crowd calendars by park, we suggest Undercover Tourist.
How do the authors build crowd calendars?
Good question! Most authors rely on a variety of methods, but they all start with some combination of: season (primarily weather), day of the week, whether kids are in school, park events (e.g. the Walt Disney World Marathon, Food and Wine Festival, or new rides opening), local events (e.g. spring break), holidays, and overall park popularity at the time. People who have been at this a long time use historical data about ride wait times and park closings. Finally, they use each other's calendars as a guide.
What's the Controversy About Disney Crowd Calendars?
There are basically two schools of thought on Walt Disney World crowd calendars.
The first is that they are a necessary part of optimizing your Walt Disney World trip. Time is money at Walt Disney World, so spending more time in line because of crowds is a waste. Being stuck in a crowded park is also an unpleasant experience. If you can find the best Disney World crowd calendar by park, you can even figure out which days to spend at which parks (and which to save for Disney resort days).
The alternative theory is that crowd calendars are useless. Since day-to-day variations in crowds are mostly random, it's hard for them to get it right. The rest is basically common sense because it is an unavoidable part of your own planning. Parents don't need a crowd calendar to tell them spring break is going to be crowded because they're considering spring break for the same reason as everyone else!
Disneyland crowd calendars are maybe even more challenging. Because of its location and size, Disneyland is much more of a local experience than Walt Disney World. Things like weather and local events are more likely to impact crowd levels. Disneyland crowd calendars thus can give you something of a guide when it comes to specific local events (like spring break), but also will be very unreliable if something like bad weather strikes.
However, Disney offsets general seasonal patterns by blocking out annual passholders from certain days. Disneyland crowd calendars have a much wider set of variables to consider than Disney World crowd calendars.
What are the best things about Disney crowd calendars?
Crowd calendars are useful for trip planning, and we don't think you should complete ignore them for at least one reason.
You can and should use crowd calendars to avoid the big problems you might not know about
You should definitely check a crowd calendar or two before deciding when to take your trip. If you don't have kids, you might now know when spring break is (spring, I guess?). You might not know which days Florida or California kids get off school. You might not be a Disney fanatic who tracks every new ride. And so on.
Disney World crowd calendars should do a good job of outlining major events at Walt Disney World that drive vacationers. Disneyland crowd calendars are good for figuring out when Disneyland locals are going to pour into the parks.
Using the crowd calendars to make sure you're not picking an awful time is a reasonable thing to do. WDW Prep School has a great example of a useful crowd calendar that provides an outline of what is going on at the parks and the reasons to expect bigger or smaller crowds.
What's not as great about Disney crowd calendars?
Parks Are Too Dynamic To Predict
We're firmly in the camp that the crowd calendars are basically useless on a day-to-day basis. You can see this just by comparing them. The best ones frequently disagree, some having a day as the busiest at a park or resort while others say it will be completely empty.
Moreover, the parks change too much. Do you think the history of crowds at Animal Kingdom (now with Pandora) and Hollywood Studios (with rides closing and opening at a frenzied pace) will be useful at all in the coming years? No way! But if crowd patterns at two parks are changing, they'll change at the other two as well.
2018 is going to be a trying year for Disney World crowd calendars, particularly. Hollywood Studios is getting a new world when Toy Story Land opens up. Obviously, crowds will go up at Hollywood Studios, but how much? And will this be a "rising tide lifts all boats" and bring more long-term travelers to Walt Disney World? Or are those people going to wait until the new Star Wars area opens in 2019?
As we touched on above, Disneyland crowd calendars face the unpredictable nature of the behavior of lots of locals. Yes, people vacation at both Disney World and Disneyland, but the proportion of locals at Disneyland is much higher than Walt Disney World. Bad weather isn't going to make you cancel your vacation, or even stay inside on your vacation, but it may make you rethink a trip to a local park.
Disney Can Manipulate Crowds and Waits
"Manipulate" maybe has too much of a negative connotation, but the point here is that how Disney conducts its operations on any given day can impact "crowd" levels. We put crowd in quotes because you can have the same number of people in the park on two different days but have two very different experiences.
If Disney understaffs or overstaffs rides, for examples, wait times will be different than they would with proper staffing. Similarly, the number of Fastpass+ slots Disney allocates for a given ride will impact wait times. Disney Tourist Blog has a great discussion of operations and crowds.
Crowd Calendars Don't Tell The Entire Story
We visited Animal Kingdom on July 4, a classic "Red" or "Highest Crowds" day on most Disney World crowd calendars. The crowds were pretty large, even at rope drop (the time we were there). But guess what? They almost all went to Pandora! The wait for Flight of Passage was three hours when the day started, but we walked right on to Expedition Everest multiple times.
As the day wore on, the increased Pandora crowds obviously impacted wait times, but in the morning Pandora made it easier to get on rides, even on July 4! Not to mention, by keep our eyes on the ball and using Fastpass+ masterfully, we were able to get a ton of rides in on this supposedly crowded day.
When it comes to new rides, new lands, and special events, we never know in advance whether these attractions will cause congestion outside of additional foot traffic. Your Disneyland crowd calendar might say to avoid the opening of Pixar Pier, but you might find all the guests at Pixar Pier leave you the rest of the parks!
Focus your energy elsewhere
Finally, even within their margins of accuracy, there are so much more important things to be worrying about than crowds. Fastpass+ availability and ADRs (advance dining reservations) are the biggies. If your favorite Epcot restaurant is only available at 4PM on a Tuesday but your partner says that won't work because Tuesday is a red day that week and you'll be at Animal Kingdom, where things are green, then go find yourself a new partner. If there is a way that over-planning can ruin a Disney trip, it is over-reliance on crowd calendars.
The truth is, if you're planning carefully, you'll be minimally impacted by crowds except between the weekend before Christmas and New Year's Day, when crowds usually reach unbearable levels. Once you've rope dropped and used your first set of Fastpasses, you'll be able to check wait times around the World to see where to head next.
You'll have planned to get all your rides in via Fastpass, rope drop, or, last resort, waiting in line. But those you're waiting in line for? They shouldn't be the rides with waits of an hour plus. Double the crowd might take one of your lines from 20 to 40 minutes, but that's within the margin of error of Disney's line times anyways (joke, sort of).
All Your Other Disney World Planning Questions Answered
Don't be overwhelmed by Disney World planning! Take a second to check out our most important content and you'll not only be an expert, but you'll save big $$$ along the way. If you're still picking dates, we've got everything you need to know about Disney crowd calendars. For picking your hotel, check out our Walt Disney World hotels guide.
Don't forget to master your Disney World Fastpass+ strategy a few months in advance. We'll keep you out of long lines so you can maximize the magical time in the parks!
Finally, before you head out, be sure to check out our to-the-point packing list, 10 essentials you forget to pack for every Disney trip. And if you're interested in saving, there's no better list than our 53 Ways to Save on your Disney trip from start to finish.